The industrial capital return is opened the curtain, according to a recent survey, nearly 40% of American companies to factories from China moved back to the United States, whether the figure is accurate, the trend for made in China will pose a challenge.
Ministry of commerce data show that foreign direct investment (FDI) since November last year, only in May year on year growth of 0.05% of the short period, the other months are negative growth, which in June FDI down 6.87%. The United States was the world's largest industrial capital to output to, but with the "re industrialization" strategy and orderly progress, the capital and technology outflow will gradually reversed may shift from a net exporter of foreign direct investment in the country is a net importer, this will not only lead to the United States capital return and its various advantages and huge market will attract global capital, make China less attractive.
In August 2010, the United States passed the manufacturing promotion act, which would suspend or reduce tariffs on imported raw materials for manufacturing. A report by the National Association of manufacturers in the United States shows that the bill could increase production by $4 billion 600 million and create nearly 90 thousand jobs. September 2010 "create American jobs and end of shift Act provided, will be from overseas movements jobs in enterprises for a period of 24 months of payroll tax relief, and to terminate the transfer to overseas factories and enterprises to provide a number of subsidies, such as tax exemptions and tax cuts. At the beginning of this year, Obama delivered a third state of the Union address, determine the 2012 election campaign theme, and put forward by the American manufacturing, local energy, labor skills training and American values such as the four pillars, constructing national sustainable construction blueprint, and even the United States to set up trade law enforcement investigation China trade behavior, has vowed to put the loss of U.S. manufacturing back.
The United States manufacturing China manufacturing will return to great in strength and impetus, decide on what path to follow? This is a big challenge in front of China.
All along, the elements of the dividend is the first driving force of China's rapid growth. Favorable population factors not only provide sufficient labor supply for economic growth, but also create the conditions for the high accumulation rate and huge capital investment. Under a variety of favorable conditions, the marginal rate of capital investment in China is usually higher than that in developed countries, and the global productive capital flows into China. However, with the disappearance of the advantage of the population, China and the United States and some sectors of the labor cost gap narrowed rapidly. According to the forecast, in dollar terms China's wages will be annual growth of 15% - 20%, outpacing productivity growth, in considering the higher productivity, labor costs in the past a huge gap in China's coastal regions and parts of the United States of low cost state between may by 2015 will be reduced to less than 40% of the level of. China's overall cost advantage will become smaller if it considers the cost of shipping and all kinds of hidden costs and supply chain costs.
Of course, the labor force is not the only factor to change the competitiveness of China, China's factor prices are generally rising. Since 2010, China's electricity costs have soared by 15%. Imported power coal price increases and the termination of the preferential tax rates for high energy consuming enterprises, but also pushed up the operating costs of these industries accounted for 74% of China's electricity consumption. In addition, China's industrial land is no longer cheap. In fact, the price of commercial land in China has greatly exceeded the United States. The cost of industrial land in the coastal city of Ningbo was $11.15 per square foot, $14.49 in Nanjing, $17.29 in Shanghai, and $21 in Shenzhen. China national average 10.22 U.S. dollars per square foot, by contrast, the state of Alabama industrial land, per square foot cost only $1.86 to $7.43, Tennessee and North Carolina for $1.30 to $4.65. Although transfer to the west can reduce the cost of land use, but the logistics costs of enterprises will be a big rise, and may lose the coastal industrial clusters to facilitate.
The Boston Consulting Group the latest research report pointed out that about 10 years ago, the United States began outsourcing machinery, computers and accounts for a considerable proportion of the manufacturing industry in the United States many products, with the emerging American manufacturing cost advantage, this situation is changing, because China is rapidly rising wages and labor productivity in the United States is four times that of China. The report predicts that over the next five years, there will be 15% of American firms from China to return to the United States, and the most likely to return, including transportation tools, electronic equipment, furniture, plastics and rubber products, machinery, metal products and computer manufacturing industry in the United States. These categories of goods accounted for nearly 70% of the U.S. imports of goods from China, accounting for the U.S. consumer spending an average of about $2 trillion.
In addition to the gradual narrowing of the cost gap, more perhaps from the challenges of innovation and technology. The United States vowed to continue to stay ahead of the high-end manufacturing industry, and to do a good job in the new industrial revolution technical reserves. The last two years, despite the economic fundamentals of the United States is difficult to have a big improvement, but the government's R & D budget has not been reduced, in 2011 that amounted to $148 billion; R & D investment is far more than this figure. Only a Microsoft, R & D investment last year, up to $90%, of which 9 billion 500 million to invest in a very critical cloud computing field, Intel ranked second last year, the technology investment also has $6 billion 500 million. In the global IT enterprise R & D investment in the top 30 in the United States has 12, followed by Japan, there are 10, China only HUAWEI a company on the list. R & D investment in 2011 accounted for about 33% of the global share, is China's two times and a half.
High end manufacturing is the core goal of the U.S. "re industrialization" strategy, the United States has officially launched the high-end manufacturing plan, product
active in the field of nanotechnology, high-end battery, energy materials, bio manufacturing, a new generation of Microelectronics R & D, high-end robots to strengthen research, which will promote the United States high-end talent, elements of high-end and high-end innovation cluster development, and keep in the high-end manufacturing in the field of research and development leading, leading technology and manufacturing leader.
Based on the above analysis, the industrial capital return has become a trend, for made in China must revive the made in China as the core of China's economic long-term strategy, absolutely can not gradually lose the advantage of cost at the same time and due to the lag of innovation, which led to double the loss of the low end and high-end manufacturing advantage.